Kentucky Derby futures are one of the most informative advance bets that you can make in any sport since the horses are under stricter scrutiny in regards to how much information is given to the public. There are some guidelines that must be followed though, if you wish to get the most efficient use of your wagering money. The first of these rules is to not believe hype. Many horses get a lot of press late in their two year old season only to perform dismally as a three year old. This year, there are several examples of this already. Tapizar, one of the most highly touted horses in early 2011, finished fifth in his three year old debut. This was against clearly inferior horses according to the pre-race day press releases. Although Tapizar's road to the Derby is still being played out, there is little doubt that he was over-hyped, and thus not a top contender for the Triple Crown.
The second rule is to pay little attention to early career speed figures. Brethren, the little brother of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, picked up his first stakes win of his career early in his three year old season with a speed figure of 83. While an 83 is not even close to Triple Crown worthy, Brethren is still growing and has not yet found his niche as a racer. Rather than focusing on how low his speed figure was, you should focus on the ease of which he picked up this win.
Pre-Derby rankings are important, but what's more important is to realize that newly-turned three year old horses are still immature. A horse typically doesn't reach its racing maturity until it is well into its five year old season. One bad prep race does not make a horse's Triple Crown bid necessarily come to a halt. Look at the great Secretariat, for example. Secretariat lost his first maiden race only to finish fourth. He also last his final Derby prep race to Sham-this last race was partially due to an abscess in his mouth. There are hundreds of reasons why a horse might not win a race, and as handicappers, it is our job to attempt to figure these reasons out.
Workouts are an often overlooked part of a three year old's development. You should see a significant increase in workout speed as a horse develops from a two year old to a three year old. Take the current Derby favorite, Uncle Mo, as an example. His 47.45 second four furlong workout is stellar when compared to his previous workout at the same distance of 49.60. This is a sure sign of a developing horse. Do not forget, though, that trainers will sometimes ease off on the speed of the workout as it gets closer to the first weekend in May. This will allow the horse to have fresh legs for the main event.
Source: EzineArticles
The second rule is to pay little attention to early career speed figures. Brethren, the little brother of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, picked up his first stakes win of his career early in his three year old season with a speed figure of 83. While an 83 is not even close to Triple Crown worthy, Brethren is still growing and has not yet found his niche as a racer. Rather than focusing on how low his speed figure was, you should focus on the ease of which he picked up this win.
Pre-Derby rankings are important, but what's more important is to realize that newly-turned three year old horses are still immature. A horse typically doesn't reach its racing maturity until it is well into its five year old season. One bad prep race does not make a horse's Triple Crown bid necessarily come to a halt. Look at the great Secretariat, for example. Secretariat lost his first maiden race only to finish fourth. He also last his final Derby prep race to Sham-this last race was partially due to an abscess in his mouth. There are hundreds of reasons why a horse might not win a race, and as handicappers, it is our job to attempt to figure these reasons out.
Workouts are an often overlooked part of a three year old's development. You should see a significant increase in workout speed as a horse develops from a two year old to a three year old. Take the current Derby favorite, Uncle Mo, as an example. His 47.45 second four furlong workout is stellar when compared to his previous workout at the same distance of 49.60. This is a sure sign of a developing horse. Do not forget, though, that trainers will sometimes ease off on the speed of the workout as it gets closer to the first weekend in May. This will allow the horse to have fresh legs for the main event.
Source: EzineArticles
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